Wednesday, January 30, 2013

The Physics of Money

We are pleased to post here reflections by guest bloggers Ignacio Mas and Kim Wilson on the metaphorical language of money.
 
 
 Image credit: PT Money

The book Metaphors We Live By makes a compelling case that metaphors are much more than mere linguistic artifacts or literary flourishes: they are conceptual devices through which we structure our understanding of the world around us. They permit us to relate fuzzier concepts which cannot be sharply defined (things such as love and peace) in terms of physical notions which we can experience more directly through our senses.

We thought we’d try their logic on the concept of money. Specifically: what does how we talk about money tell us about how we conceive it?

In the first instance we tend to look at money as a resource, and as such it can be earned, spent, set aside, used. We can even make it. We think of the money resource in very physical terms. It is measurable because it can have mass (as in he has a ton of money), volume (buckets of money), or extension (raising or putting up money). It is appreciable through our full sensory range: he touches money daily, he reeks of wealth, show me the money, money talks. Wrote F. Scott Fitzgerald of his female protagonist in The Great Gatsby, “Her voice is full of money (...) – that was the inexhaustible charm that rose and fell in it, the jingle of it.” Because of its importance in daily life, the money resource is often analogized in terms of basic foodstuffs, as in dough or bacon. Who said money is no object?

Conceptualizing money as a resource emphasizes the quantity of money. But sometimes we need to think of money in more probabilistic terms, in which case the money as a container metaphor seems more appropriate. Your bet may be in the money when it is likely to go into your container: it’s potential money. You’re out a dollar when you lose it or waste it.

But the more interesting metaphors relate to money as a substance, where it’s the condition of the substance rather than its quantity that matters. We can associate money with temperature: readily-available cash burns a hole in your pocket. In international finance, speculative, short-term capital flows are hot money. In West African community finance, l’argent chaud (hot money) are funds constituted from clients’ resources, while l’argent froid (cold money) is pumped in as credit from the government or a bank. Hot money is closer to the heart, and thus hot money loans are always the first to be repaid.

We also think of money in terms of the states of matter. We like to think of our monetary wealth as being solid: we freeze money, we name our currencies after weights (pounds in the UK, pesos in Latin America), we think of people as being loaded. Easily available or spendable money we tend to see as being liquid: we speak of regular cash flows, of pouring or hemorrhaging money, of pooling it into a slush fund. If you manage your money well you will stay afloat, you will remain solvent, and you can avoid going under and having to be bailed out. The act of spending money is akin to vaporizing it: your account dries up, you burn money.

Money can also have a tempo. Dubious traders can be out to make a fast buck, while economists will tell you that more readily convertible forms of money have higher velocity.
Isn’t it remarkable how consistent the metaphors of money are with elementary physics. The temperature of a substance, its physical state and the speed of motion of its particles are all manifestations of the same thing: the amount of energy embedded in the substance. Long-term or ‘locked-up’ savings we think of as low-energy (cold, slow, solid) whereas ‘available’ money is higher energy (hot, fast, liquid). 

Could this implicit notion of energy refer to the psychological effort we need to expend daily to maintain the money, i.e. to not spend it? The process of freezing or slowing down money is about getting it out of our mind (and our grip) as much as we can. 

Ignacio Mas is an independent consultant on mobile money and technology-enabled models for financial inclusion. His website can be found here.
Kim Wilson is on the faculty of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and blogs at Savings Revolution.

Thursday, January 24, 2013

SAVE the Date! Mobile Money Payments Conference in Ghana March 12-13th, 2013


A 2-DAY CONFERENCE ON MOBILE MONEY PAYMENTS IN GHANA

Venue: Ghana Technology University College, Accra-Ghana

Ghana Telecom University College (GTUC), Accra-Ghana is looking forward to hosting a conference on the uptake of mobile money in Ghana and is pleased announce Peter Zetterli, CGAP (Consultative Group to Assist the Poor)/World Bank Group as the Conference Keynote Speaker. Peter Zetterli works with CGAP’s Technology and Business Model Innovation Team on understanding and catalyzing the developing branchless banking sector in Ghana. With the goal of raising an awareness of the product and encouraging usage, researchers Ms. Abena Offe and Mr. Yaw Owusu-Agyemang at GTUC in consultation with researchers from the University of North Carolina at Pembroke, USA—Prof. Edwin Clifford Mensah and Prof. Zhixin “Richard” Kang, are planning a 2-day mobile money conference in Ghana from March 12th -13th, 2013. The conference will bring all the relevant stakeholders in the mobile money industry in Ghana together to deliberate on the barriers to the adoption of mobile money and the strategies to mitigate the barriers to promote awareness and enhance the uptake of the product. Unlike M-PESA in Kenya, the introduction of mobile money in Ghana, has met the reticence of Ghanaians. Unfortunately, the high mobile phone penetration rate (over 90%) in Ghana, coupled with the millions of dollars spent by Telcos to promote the product is yet to translate into reasonable adoption rates.
 
Attendees include:
  • Telecommunication Companies (MTN, TIGO, AIRTEL)
  • Government Representatives/Agencies
  • NGOs
  • Traditional leaders
  • Women’s Groups
  • Academic Researchers (International and Domestic)
  • Utility Companies
  • Financial Institutions
  • General public welcome
 
We are pleased to note that this is the first of a series of blogs to track the conference. Click here to read more about the conference. For registration and further information on the conference, please contact edwin.mensah@uncp.edu/zhinxin.kang@uncp.edu or the Office of Research and Consultancy Services at Ghana Technology University College (GTUC) on Tel: +233 302200610 / 0202698207, email: orcs@gtuc.edu.gh/aoffe@gtuc.edu.gh.

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

SIM Registration and Financial Inclusion in the "Silicon Savannah"

By Kevin P. Donovan

In the past few years Kenya has received widespread acclaim as a rising digital power on the African continent. Terms like ‘Silicon Savannah’ are now used to describe the success and excitement around Kenya’s ICT industry, with Safaricom’s M-Pesa leading the way. But this progress did not arise accidentally; it took committed political, bureaucratic and corporate leadership, including the reform of trade, tax and financial rules. Yet new regulations may threaten the success of Kenyan ICT, especially for those most in need of its opportunities. This post explores how one of these new developments - the case of SIM registration - may be inadvertently diminishing the positive aims of mobile phones and financial inclusion (though others, like the drive to shut-off counterfeit phones deserve attention, too).

As of the beginning of 2013, it is illegal to use an unregistered SIM card in Kenya, with violators facing disconnection and the possibility of both a steep fine and multiple years in prison. Kenyan government officials say that the law - which requires mobile users to provide official identity documents to activate a SIM card - is necessary to curb the use of mobile phones in crimes ranging from kidnaping to hate speech. With an upcoming election and fears of violence, the government has been pushing ahead firmly. Unfortunately, the policy change has been marked by confusion: with only a few days to go, compliance was only 80 percent, with one operator reporting as few as 63.7 percent of its subscribers had registered. Operators experienced logistical difficulties getting registration data from remote parts of the country, and The Nation reported that customers were confused about whether mobile money customers (who were already registered due to Know Your Customer laws) would need to register again.

Kenya is not alone in this push. As Aaron Martin and I have documented in a recent paper, in the past 6 years, 48 out of 54 countries in Africa have started requiring the registration of personally identifiable data in order to activate a prepaid SIM card. Given the lack of political opposition and privacy protection across the continent, this significant policy change has received little attention; however, it is likely to limit access to mobile connectivity, raise unaddressed questions about privacy, and indeterminately change the dynamics of financial inclusion.


SIM Registration in Africa (Oct. 2012)
Red is required; green is not required; blue is unknown.

Raising Barriers to Mobile Connectivity

At first blush, requiring an identity document to activate a SIM card may not seem particularly onerous. After all, many of us provide more than just an ID to open our mobile accounts. Yet, the reality for many African mobile subscribers is far more difficult. Geographic dispersion and poor infrastructure make travelling to registration outlets a difficulty. More fundamentally, tens of millions of Africans lack formal identity documents, either because they never received them or have lost them over the years. The success of mobile phones in Africa occurred because barriers to entry were lowered to a bare minimum thanks to market competition and business model innovations like prepaid airtime. 

Even slightly raising the barrier can prove to be sufficiently exclusionary for millions. Following SIM registration requirements in Zimbabwe, the two leading operators lost two million subscribers. In South Africa, MTN lost (PDF) nearly a million subscriptions and growth for the industry slowed considerably afterward. In the past week in Kenya, more than 1.2 million SIM cards were shut off because they were not registered by the December 31st deadline. While some of these were unused accounts, many more were people who could not - often through no fault of their own - register their SIM cards.

This additional hurdle to mobile connectivity may be a worthwhile trade-off in a legitimate effort to fight crime, yet it’s unclear that this is the case for two reasons. To begin, while governments like Kenya’s justify SIM card registration as a means to curb crime, there is no reliable evidence that these policies lead to a reduction in crime. In countries like South Africa or Nigeria where SIM registration policies are already in effect, pre-registered cards are easily obtained; where that isn’t possible, a criminal could easily use a foreign SIM card on roam. The trouble is compounded because, as our research shows, in many countries, opposition to SIM card registration from politicians, civil society and private industry is ignored. The lack of countervailing power in general means that governments have not had to provide objective, independent evidence of the efficacy of SIM card registration. While rules about identifying communication can certainly be legitimate, the ways in which SIM card registration has occurred often fail to meet desirable standards of democratic policymaking. The result, unfortunately, are new barriers to the positive opportunities of mobile connectivity.

Linkages to the Financial Inclusion Agenda

But what does all this mean for financial inclusion? Here the results are less clear, but a couple of possibilities are emerging. As mentioned above, many mobile network operators (MNOs) have expressed opposition to SIM registration requirements, both because the onus of registration falls upon them and they stand to lose substantial numbers of subscribers. While many MNOs remain opposed, in some cases they are changing their tune. On the one hand, governments have shown their unwillingness to listen to resistance, but, perhaps more importantly, mobile operators have begun to see new business opportunities: the growth of personal identification means MNOs are better able to target their services and sell data to other companies, perhaps making SIM registration profitable.

Already, the CTO of MTN Nigeria is publicly advocating for SIM registration information to link banking, health and driving license data. In Kenya, the operators are using SIM registration as a means to “gain useful insight on prepaid customers [and] develop a more targeted approach to segments of our consumers and entice them to pick post-paid services”. Following SIM registration, Vodacom South Africa was able to increase (PDF) “implementations of direct prepaid campaigns resulting in significant prepaid churn reduction from 48.1% at Q3 2008 to 38.1% at Q3 2009”. This reduction in churn may be complemented by bundling, analyzing and selling transaction data, not unlike Google or, more recently, MasterCard in the United States.

The success of new financial inclusion initiatives such as microloans and insurance is believed to hinge on these new forms of data collection and analysis. The vast majority of Africans lack a formal credit history, meaning that potential lenders are unable to model and manage risk. As Timothy Mwololo detailed at the IMTFI conference in December, already Safaricom is beginning to build credit scores through accessing official and private databases for its M-Shwari micro-banking product (which, incidentally, garnered 1 million users in its first month, already receiving deposits of Ksh 1 billion and issuing credit of KSh 140 million, according to The Star). Other operators are following suit: in September of last year, Airtel announced a partnership to sell insurance in seven countries with South African insurance giant Sanlam.

This is a significant shift from the traditional microfinance model of relying on existing trust and social pressure to ensure repayment. As microfinance evolves towards more individualized and commercial models, including new products such as insurance, “more mainstream financial tools such as credit bureaus and credit scoring are already starting to be used” (Schwittay 2011). As a recent industry report detailed, “there is an opportunity for lenders to chart another path, using increased computing power and new sources of information and data (including mobile phone usage patterns, utility bill payment history, and others) to build better risk models” (Baer et al. 2012). While in some cases this data will be population-level, in many it will be tied directly to individual identity, often through the use of SIM card registration data. For example, one Asian consumer lender “found that delinquencies on mobile phone bills were 60 percent more predictive of eventual small-loan defaults than were delinquencies on loans from other banks. Even the choice of payment plan for the phone bill, a seemingly unimportant variable, was found to be just as predictive as the second-best variable available from the credit bureau” (Baer et al. 2012).

Although it is too early to tell the result of this, there are a number of causes for concern. As Kelly Gates has argued in the American context, aggregating transaction data has been a core aspect of the “financialization” of the U.S. economy. There is reason to believe that SIM registration could come to be a key resource in the finance industry’s effort to define, measure and differentiate populations, with some people being seen as profitable, and others excluded. While there are benefits to improving access to financial services through better data analysis, there is also a more worrying side that requires transparency, consumer empowerment and effective regulation. Is the financial inclusion community ready to address these new issues?

Furthermore, early reports from Kenya suggest that SIM registration is having unintended consequences on mobile competition. Safaricom, which controls more than 60% of the market already, seems to have benefited due to both the existing registration data from M-Pesa customers and their enormous network of M-Pesa agents who are able to register subscribers where others cannot. For example, Martha Nambengele, a rural Kenyan, switched to Safaricom from a rival operator: “As an alternative, I moved to Safaricom which I found easy to register because the M-Pesa kiosk is just a stone-throw-away from my house” compared to the next closest registration location 7km away.






Conclusion


It may be the case that desirable outcomes emerge from SIM card registration - indeed, the exclusion from systems of formal identification often harms the poor who are unable to access important services - but the growing chorus of support for such positives must be complemented by steps to avoid the downsides; in the case of SIM card registration in Africa, this has rarely happened.

As the chaotic start to 2013 in Kenya shows, SIM card registration is not a straightforward process. Nor should it be considered a straightforward policy: much more debate about the consequences (intended and otherwise), as well as new rules about the use of that data, is required, from both the financial inclusion community and elsewhere.
 
Kevin P. Donovan is a researcher at the University of Cape Town. His IMTFI-sponsored research focuses on biometric identification, mobile phones and privacy within financial inclusion efforts.

Friday, January 11, 2013

Gaming the System: Institutional Cultures and Regulatory Framings


"Resistance to e-Money in Poor Remittances Receivers' Families, Case in Lombok Island, Indonesia" was structured with Catur Sugiyanto delivering the main presentation and Tiar Shantiuli and Zuhrohtun Zuhrohtun Sugiyanto (pictured above) fielding questions. Researchers visited about 200 households with at least one family member working abroad and asked questions about how remittances were handled. 66% of the informants were female, mostly in their twenties and thirties.  Most identified themselves as farmers with elementary education. 83% of the remittances sent by migrants from Lombok came from Malaysia, and 16% came from countries in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi. Researchers were trying to answer whether there has been any shift from cash to mobile money or e-money among remitters and those who receive remittances. Bank transfers accounted for 46% of remittances, and Western Union accounted for 35%. Other forms of remittance service providers include POS Indonesia and Pegadaian, as well as traditional transfer mechanisms.

The cash transfer process involves showing a PIN in the form of an SMS, showing an ID, and filling out a form. This last part might be "tricky," in Sugiyanto's words, and less literate clients often needed to ask a person to help. There were people around to help, but that also meant that there was less privacy. In fact, because the form is excessively complicated for recipients to complete, they must rely on "tekong" or unlicensed agents. Others carry cash by hand to the airport, and researchers showed crowds milling about near the terminal for this purpose. Over 80% of people in the region have no bank account, but 80% do have a mobile phone, so it seemed logical to ask whether this population would be willing to use mobile money. Researchers relied on Ram and Sheth’s resistance to technology framework.  They discovered that in fact mobile money is not easy to use, not convenient, and seemingly well-suited only for high class and well educated people. Informants also expressed a need for a traditional face-to-face banking services.

"Betting on Chance in Colombia: How Game Operator Networks Succeed in Providing Financial Services to the Poor While Other Networks Stay Behind" by Ana Echeverry and Coppelia Herran presented work that considered the relationship between financial inclusion and get-rich-schemes structured by games of chance.  Although the team identified themselves as part of a research network sponsored by a design consultancy called TOCA in Chicago, they both live and work in Columbia. Their paper explored how game network operators succeed in providing financial services to the poor while other networks fall far behind in reach and effectiveness. The gaming they described was constituted by a kind of lottery, although it was less expensive. Small booths in every corner store in the country, along with some street vendors, facilitate participation by using a dataphone or POS. Of course, unlike currency exchanges, there could be a dramatic value duality here, since chance structures the betting game. Ironically, the poor were the ones that played the most and sometimes became dependent on what could be an activity that worsened their financial situations.

Researchers did not deal with the betting aspect of these financial transactions but rather focused on the rest of the services, which were impressive given a penetration of 46,000 terminals in addition to all the mobile dataphones and a structure that could prepay utilities, communication, and media services.  In a country of 46.9 million people, there were almost as many phones. While banking accounted for 7.7 billion during a four year period, game networks represented 3.8 billion in remittances in a single year, and indicated that this approach was often more important to many than conventional financial inclusion.  The group did video ethnography work with 18-24 informal workers and street sellers. They presented contexts of vulnerability, displacement, parental absence, armed conflict and territorial disputes between state and illegal groups, including guerrillas and narco-traffickers, who might attempt to control public space.  They also explained the concept of "rebusque" or "re-search" to illustrate how informal workers might be searching repeatedly for any increment of money. With no access to credit, restrictive regulations, and high banking costs, microfinance didn't present them a workable business models.

Researchers focused on contrasts in Columbia rather than absolute numbers and engaged with questions about their informants' values instead of merely using a statistical survey.  They argued that looking for the values that drive the behaviors of people could generate a better solution.  Because game networks rely on a common process for a variety of transactions, financial practices seemed simpler, and this common process was seen as more important than a common interface or device.  One password entered connects them to all their needs: paying bills, buying minutes, and managing utilities all on one ticket via the chance seller’s device.  Often informants used alternative paths for finances by borrowing from criminal gangs.  Such payday loans with daily payments might mean that a fifty dollar loan carries a ten dollar surcharge, but informants described liking these arrangements, because they were accessible and immediate and were consistent with the short cycles of investment and working capital to which they were accustomed, which was called "planting" in Columbian slang.  One person actually explained that "we are poor but not stupid."

Bending the rules of public space for the right to work was often acknowledged as being acceptable by the poor of Columbia.  Because permanence on a site is a sign of stability, there were territorial conflicts and difficulties establishing credit for many. For example, transactions done on corners and off grass were understood to have pseudo-legality.  Some claimed that permits were in process, and others claimed chairs and tables as they squatted. Public space became an important intangible asset, and they asserted that it functioned as currency although it could not be cashed.  Game network services were just "one piece of the puzzle" because they did not include credit, and this area remained a void from the researchers' perspective. Illegality supported legality, and informality supported formality as a result of this gap.  To pay for the services of government and corporate infrastructures, sometimes the poor had to rely on criminal enterprises. Researchers argued that in visualizing opportunities models like guilds and associations could be helpful in understanding eligibility and provide recognition for their contributions to the local economy, as in the case of buying fruit from farmers markets.  Sustenance rather than entrepreneurship might be much more important for this audience by amplifying value, simplifying access, supporting continuity, and regulating transparency.

Kevin Donovan of the Centre for Social Science Research at the University of Cape Town presented last in the panel session with "Composing Development? Biometrics, Smart Cards and Financial Inclusion in South Africa's Social Protection Initiative" with research from South Africa that reflected an historical "mania for measurement" in a country that was today "awash with statistics." Although biometrics was a legacy of the apartheid regime, as a modality of power that controlled human mobility that dated back to the introduction of fingerprinting in 1891, it continues today as a way to manage the disbursement of small cash grants for old age or disability and could be a part of democratic contestation as a rule-based activity.  He argued that statistics serve as a "technology of trust," and that the image of perverse incentives to have children out of wedlock in order to qualify for funds was actually more complex in offering a range of types of benefits through grant programs.  He noted the importance of civil society’s “guerilla auditors” and cited the work of Kregg Heatherington on Paraguay to understand the political dynamic at work.

Given the scale of the country, however, there have been major implementation problems, such as how to connect more than 10 million pockets to the National Treasury.  The government's contractor, NET1, has enrolled 21 million citizens in its biometric initiatives and may be as inclusive as mobile phones and propagates an ideology of objectivity and rationality.  Supposedly "ghosts" or duplicates were being removed from the system, but Donovan argued that this was actually a "myth," and he quoted Speaking into the Air? A History of the Idea of Communication by JD Peters on doubts that "communications will solve the problem of communication" and "better wiring will eliminate the ghosts."  Donovan also challenged the conceit that "bodies were stable unchanging repositories that could be turned into information in a database."

Biometric failures seemed to be inevitable.  Furthermore, race, class, gender, sexuality, and disability were expressed in ways that fostered misidentification.  For example, a cut on a finger or a history of manual labor might inhibit accurate machine reading.  Nonetheless, this system was likely to continue in its present form, according to Donovan.  Many South Africans might be suspicious of fingerprinting, but they might also be in great need of cash.  They may even see the payments as "gifts" not entitlements and so put up with biometrics for the near future.  Without a strong privacy lobby or strong data integrity laws little was likely to change.

Donovan closed with more speculative remarks about the potential to depoliticize grantmaking and the intersection of biometrics with more contested financial practices.  He asserted that simplified technical systems only allowed for yes/no answers rather than processing more complicated questions about causes of poverty and might negate legitimate livelihood strategies as an impersonal machine replaces an understanding bureaucrat.  He called upon the theories of James C. Scott about "infrapolitics" to explain everyday acts of dissimulation such as grant fraud.  He also discussed how politics involve getting inside the "silver box" of the technological system and how the removal of subjective discretion is biased toward those that control the technology, for example, by quashing people’s own ways to gain access to these payments by sharing knowledge about eligibility.  South Africa has both a developed financial system and a large informal economy, which can exacerbate existing exploitation of the poor through automatic deductions.  Digital banking means digital data trails in "the dark side of financial inclusion."  The "standardizing and formatting of the poor" have both positive and negative effects.

This panel about scams, betting, and fraud might not necessarily match the conventional financial services model and narrative of development, but these seemingly subversive practices do reveal how digital mobile money might have unintended consequences.  In characterizing financial inclusion, the words of an NGO official might say it all: "Financial inclusion means your money isn’t with you."

Final remarks from  IMTFI's Bill Maurer summed up the two days of discussion by offering some tentative glimpses at the provisional data from the group that are understood to be works-in-progress. He noted that Jonathan Donner showed that we were getting a real sense of people’s practices around objects, not just the objects themselves, such as forms of money or the technologies for storage or transfer.  The conference often emphasized the connections between practices and the materiality of objects, particularly the materiality in relation to embodied practice and the materiality of experience, as documented in the video that came from the market in Ethiopia, which showed a "world of bags and baskets," of containers for money from salt and coffee kept separate, which was also a world of gesture and physicality and the ways that "you call the guy back."

Maurer asked how we understand the materiality of practice in a changing world, a world in which dematerialization of money is a real trend in which the dynamics of concealment and display function in constructs of invisibility of money and wealth. Maurer argued that we assume that we have inherited a world of progressively greater dematerialization, although the documents and data storehouses of ancient Mesopotamia were succeeded by the minting of the first coins. We experience abstract circulation as "new" but it might be old, not just very old but ancient, a world of data, like the one captured in cuneiform tablets.  He also asked if money really is ever de-materialized in the current age, particularly when the tangibility of mobile money was so present for the visually impaired in which digital money was still a world of sound and a world of touch.

As Maurer pointed out it mobile money also exists in a world of "helpers" with economic practices of assistance that also open up a world of danger.  He argued that researchers still have problems trying to understand trust, which is not merely about peer-to-peer transactions but also about group identity.  In these mobile economies of affection.  Particularly in the presentations from Latin America, the audience was invited to consider not just individual drives or affect, but something more collective.  He also asked how the state aligns with collectivity and the public and how alignment fails to happen or how there may be more than one state or one part of the state or state interactions.  Finally, he observed that there continued to be suspicion around the dominant financial inclusion agenda and suspicion about visions of mobile money that transcend existing cultural practices and imagine that the client is only the individual.

As discussions continued after the formal conference, apparently participants would consider particular keywords: 1) institutions, 2) architectures, 3) inclusion & exclusion, 4) mobility, and 5) propositions and prospects.  Maurer argued that we have become more sober and more clear-eyed.  Are certain questions getting un-asked in the name of a technical fix to the problem?  Maurer wondered aloud about the potential de-politicization represented by a technical approach to the world although the world we work to “reveal” is a world already filled with people who are fixing the technics, creating new systems of material and practice, repurposing, refunctioning, and hacking by making do and getting by.